Political Fundamentals Foreshadowed Trump Victory

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Gallup’s key U.S. political and economic indicators clearly signaled that the nation’s mood favored Republicans in 2024. While Donald Trump lagged Kamala Harris in favorability and on certain important character ratings, his victory on Tuesday suggests that fundamentals of the election environment remain strongly predictive of election outcomes.
As detailed below, Americans’ relatively high Republican Party identification and leaning heading into Election Day, combined with their negative views of the economy, the direction of the country and the job performance of Democratic President Joe Biden, created a favorable environment for Trump and the Republican Party.
The economy ranked as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters said would influence their choice for president. It was the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, said the candidates’ positions on it were an “extremely important” influence on their vote, and voters favored Trump over Harris to better handle the issue by nine percentage points.
Public confidence in the economy has skewed negative since inflation began to rise in 2021, according to Gallup’s monthly tracking of Americans’ views of current national economic conditions and their outlook for the future. Gallup’s final preelection economic confidence score of -26 was closer to what it has typically been in losing (1992, 2008, 2016) rather than winning (1996, 2004, 2012) years for the president’s party. In 2020, Americans’ evaluations were essentially neutral when Trump lost, though other incumbent presidents have won when economic confidence was at a similar level.
Americans’ partisanship strongly aligns with how they will vote, making it an important indicator of election outcomes. Thus, it was significant when Gallup found Republicans leading Democrats in U.S. party identification in the third quarter — 48% identified as or leaned Republican, and 45% identified as or leaned Democratic.
That GOP advantage held in October, a sharp contrast from the party balance in the final month in all prior elections since 1992. From 1992 through 2020, Democrats led Republicans in Americans’ party preferences in the month before Election Day.
Importantly, Democrats won the White House in presidential election years when they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020. In years when Democrats’ advantage was narrower — 2004 and 2016, for example — Republicans won in the Electoral College if not also the popular vote. Thus, Republicans’ rare lead in party identification this year put Trump in a strong position to win unless Democratic turnout far outpaced Republican turnout.
Americans have had a negative impression of the overall state of the country for most of the past two decades, but differences in the level of that view have important implications for the party of the incumbent president. While high satisfaction hasn’t always guaranteed incumbent party victory, low satisfaction with the direction of the country has always corresponded with incumbent party defeat.
Twenty-six percent of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. in Gallup’s final preelection reading in October. That’s a level consistent with years when the incumbent party lost the presidential election, including in 1992 (22%), 2008 (13%) and 2020 (28%). The lowest satisfaction rating in a year the incumbent party won was 33% in 2012.
By 46% to 41%, Americans said in September that the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they thought was the most important problem facing the country. The specific issues Americans frequently named as the most important tended to favor the GOP, including in October — the economy (21%), immigration (21%), the government (17%) and inflation (14%).
This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year. The question was not asked in 2000, and the two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue. The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948, when Americans believed the Republican Party was better able to handle the most important problem (international issues) but returned Democratic incumbent Harry Truman to office.
Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race moved presidential job approval from arguably the most important election indicator this year to one of secondary importance. Biden’s 41% final preelection job approval rating was well below the 48% threshold for past presidents who were reelected. Trump lost the 2020 election when 46% approved of the job he was doing as president.
Biden’s unpopularity may still have affected the election to the extent that voters transferred their frustrations with the Biden administration to Harris. For her part, 45% of U.S. adults approved of the job she was doing as vice president in October.
In presidential election years when the incumbent was not running for reelection, the opposition party won all but the 1988 election. These losses occurred whether the incumbent president was popular (1960, 2000 and 2016) or unpopular (1952, 1968 and 2008) at the time of the election. All of those elections, unlike this year’s, came after the incumbent had been elected to serve a second term as president in the prior election.
Ratings of the candidates’ personal qualities showed Harris had a strong advantage over Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of being likable and smaller leads for having strong moral character and being honest and trustworthy. Trump outpaced Harris in perceptions of being a strong and decisive leader and being able to get things done. More Americans also had a favorable view of Harris than of Trump in Gallup’s final preelection poll in late October.
Trump’s solid margin of victory in the election suggests that his perceived leadership skills may have offset his deficits in likability and personal character and that voters were more influenced by the national environment (the economy and direction of the nation) than by candidate factors.
Voters often reward the party in power when they are happy with the state of the nation and punish it when they are dissatisfied. Americans’ continued unhappiness with the state of the nation ensured the defeat of the incumbent presidential party for the third consecutive election. The specifics of the frustration shifted from COVID-19 four years ago to inflation, immigration and economic angst this year, but Americans were no happier with the state of the nation after four years of a generally unpopular Democratic administration than after four years of an unpopular Republican one.
Any reservations Americans had about Trump personally seemingly mattered less than their dissatisfaction with the state of the nation. That dissatisfaction also helped Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate in the next congressional term — and possibly gain complete control of the federal government if the GOP holds control of the House as the final races are determined in the coming days.
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